IA idea · Environment & climate
Are Atlantic hurricanes becoming more frequent?
Research question
Does the annual number of Atlantic hurricanes since 1966 follow a Poisson distribution, and is there a significant difference in the mean number per year between 1966–1995 and 1996–2025?
Adapt it: change the place, the data or the comparison until the question is yours.
Why it makes a good exploration
Hurricane counts are small integers each year — ideal for the Poisson distribution. Testing for change, while recognising that satellites improved detection, is a thoughtful statistics IA with a real scientific debate behind it.
The mathematics you'll need
- Poisson distribution and goodness-of-fit
- Comparing means of two periods
- Mean–variance comparison
- Discussing detection bias
Course labels show where a technique sits; using maths from outside your course is fine if you explain it clearly and say it is new to you.
Where the data comes from
Count hurricanes per year from NOAA's HURDAT2 database.
- NOAA National Hurricane Center — HURDAT2 — Six-hourly track, wind and pressure for every Atlantic tropical cyclone since 1851.
Cite every source in a footnote where you use it and in your bibliography. Check the licence of any dataset you download.
A possible outline
- Define what you count (hurricane strength at any point).
- Justify the start year (satellite era).
- Test the Poisson fit.
- Compare periods.
- Reflect on detection, natural cycles and intensity vs frequency.
Pitfalls that cost marks
- Using pre-satellite years without discussing detection.
- Counting storms instead of hurricanes inconsistently.
- Over-interpreting a non-significant result.
Showing personal engagement
- Choose a season you remember from the news.
- Compare major hurricanes only.
- Explain the debate about hurricane trends in your own words.
See Criterion C: personal engagement for what examiners look for.
Taking it further
Test whether intensity (maximum wind speed) has changed, not just frequency.