Is deforestation in [a country] slowing down?

AI SLAI HLAA SL Accessible Also in: Statistics, Modelling

Research question

Is there a significant trend in annual tree-cover loss in [a country] since 2001, and did loss change after a specific policy or event?

Adapt it: change the place, the data or the comparison until the question is yours.

Why it makes a good exploration

Satellite data now measures forest loss every year. Testing a trend, and whether a policy made a difference, is a real environmental-statistics question you can answer with open data.

The mathematics you'll need

Time-series plots and linear regression
Significance of a trend (correlation test)
Comparing means before and after an event (t-test)
Percentage change

Course labels show where a technique sits; using maths from outside your course is fine if you explain it clearly and say it is new to you.

Where the data comes from

Annual tree-cover loss by country from Global Forest Watch.

Global Forest Watch open data — Annual tree-cover loss by country since 2001, from Landsat imagery.
Our World in Data — Clean country-level time series (CO₂, population, health, energy, education) with CSV download on every chart.

Cite every source in a footnote where you use it and in your bibliography. Check the licence of any dataset you download.

A possible outline

Explain what “tree-cover loss” does and does not measure.
Plot and describe the series.
Test for a trend.
Compare before and after a policy.
Reflect on regrowth, plantations and satellite limitations.

Pitfalls that cost marks

Equating tree-cover loss with deforestation without comment.
Choosing a policy date after seeing the data.
Ignoring outlier years (fires).

Showing personal engagement

Choose a country connected to you or your diet (soy, palm oil, beef).
Compare two countries.
Discuss what would count as success.

See Criterion C: personal engagement for what examiners look for.

Taking it further

Model cumulative loss and estimate remaining forest under different scenarios.

Turn this idea into your IA

Plan this IAOpens the planner with this question, the maths and data sources filled in. Desmos workspacePlot your data, fit models and keep your graphs with your plan. AI feedback on a draftCriterion-by-criterion feedback with evidence from your own text. Coaching, not rewriting. Examiner reviewPete, a practising IA examiner, reads your draft and talks it through with you (€100).