IA idea · Sport
Is there a limit to how fast humans can run 100 m?
Research question
Which model — linear, exponential decay to an asymptote, or logistic — best fits the progression of the men's (or women's) 100 m world record, and what limiting time does it predict?
Adapt it: change the place, the data or the comparison until the question is yours.
Why it makes a good exploration
Records keep falling, but more slowly. Fitting models with an asymptote gives a predicted “ultimate” time — and discussing whether that prediction means anything is excellent Reflection.
The mathematics you'll need
- Exponential and logistic models with asymptotes
- Least-squares fitting with technology
- Residuals and model comparison
- Extrapolation and its limits
Course labels show where a technique sits; using maths from outside your course is fine if you explain it clearly and say it is new to you.
Where the data comes from
Record progression data from World Athletics or Olympic results from Olympedia.
- World Athletics records and results — All-time lists, records and progression for every athletics event.
- Olympedia — Complete Olympic results for every event since 1896.
Cite every source in a footnote where you use it and in your bibliography. Check the licence of any dataset you download.
A possible outline
- Explain why records should approach a limit.
- Fit several models.
- Compare fits and predicted limits.
- Test with data held back (recent records).
- Reflect on timing technology, doping and footwear.
Pitfalls that cost marks
- Linear extrapolation to absurd times.
- Treating the record as a smooth function of time.
- Ignoring hand-timed early records.
Showing personal engagement
- Choose an event you compete in.
- Compare men's and women's limits.
- Discuss what the model says about the athletes of the future.
See Criterion C: personal engagement for what examiners look for.
Taking it further
Fit models to the top-10 performances each year instead of the record alone and compare.