Updated 12 October 2026 · By Pete Bromfield, former Head of Maths with IB examining experience

IA idea · Sport

Will women's Olympic times ever match men's?

AI SLAI HLAA SLAA HL Solid Also in: Statistics, Modelling

Research question

Has the gap between men's and women's winning times in [an Olympic event] narrowed over time, and what does comparing linear and asymptotic models say about famous claims that women will one day run faster?

Make it yours, then agree it with your teacher.

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Why it makes a good exploration

A 2004 paper in Nature extrapolated straight lines to predict women would outrun men in the 100 m by 2156 — and was widely criticised. Reworking the analysis with better models teaches more about extrapolation than any textbook exercise.

The mathematics you'll need

Linear regression and extrapolation
Exponential/asymptotic models
Percentage gap as a derived variable
Residuals and model criticism

Modelling the data, step by step

This idea usually needs exponential or straight-line models. See it worked step by step, with a criterion tip at every step: Exponential y = a e^(kx) + c and y = a·bˣ · Straight line y = mx + c · Choosing and comparing models.

Model your own data Paste it from Desmos, GeoGebra or a spreadsheet and get the same play-by-play with your numbers. New to modelling? Start with the modelling workflow. Writing it up? The IA modelling planner comments on each paragraph as you draft — it never writes it for you.

Where the data comes from

Winning times for one event since women first competed, from Olympedia.

Olympedia — Complete Olympic results for every event since 1896.

Real data for this idea

Primary source: Olympedia results. Use the event result pages; copy only the rows you need and cite each page. Licence: No reuse licence found: link and cite only.

There is no open reuse licence for these figures: copy only the values you analyse into your own table, and cite the page and the date. Links checked October 2026; we link to the data and never copy it. More free data sets.

A possible outline

Present the data and the percentage gap.
Fit linear models and show where they cross.
Fit models with asymptotes.
Analyse the gap directly over time.
Reflect on extrapolation, participation and physiology.

Pitfalls that cost marks

Extrapolating linearly without criticism.
Ignoring years with boycotts or no Games.
Comparing events with changed rules.

Showing personal engagement

Choose an event you care about.
Read the original paper and a response and summarise both fairly.
Compare several events.

See Criterion C: personal engagement for what examiners look for.

Which course is it for?

Course	Fit	Maths to lean on
AA SL	Good fit	Linear regression and extrapolation; Exponential/asymptotic models
AA HL	Good fit	Linear regression and extrapolation; Exponential/asymptotic models
AI SL	Good fit	Linear regression and extrapolation; Exponential/asymptotic models
AI HL	Good fit	Linear regression and extrapolation; Exponential/asymptotic models

Level: Solid. Needs some independent work beyond class examples. See how the IA differs between AA and AI, SL and HL.

How this idea reaches the top bands

Reflection (D)

For this idea, start with the weak points: extrapolating linearly without criticism; and ignoring years with boycotts or no Games. Say how each one affects your answer.

Use of mathematics (E)

SL: linear regression and extrapolation; exponential/asymptotic models; percentage gap as a derived variable; residuals and model criticism, each explained in your own words and carried out correctly.

How sport explorations reach the top bands in general: Sport IA ideas. Guides: A · B · C · D · E · self-grade sheet.

Taking it further

Model the percentage gap as an exponential decay to a constant and estimate that constant.

Extending it for HL

Add an HL technique the question genuinely needs: what an HL sport exploration adds.

See a complete IA, marked

How long does a skydiver take to reach terminal velocity? (AA HL) is a complete sport exploration, marked on every criterion.

Frequently asked questions

Which IB Maths course is this IA idea for?

It works for AI SL, AI HL, AA SL and AA HL. We rate it Solid: it needs some independent work beyond class examples.

What mathematics does this IA use?

Linear regression and extrapolation, exponential/asymptotic models, percentage gap as a derived variable and residuals and model criticism.

Where can I get data for this IA?

Winning times for one event since women first competed, from Olympedia. Checked sources and tools: Olympedia.

Turn this idea into your IA

The planner opens with “Will women's Olympic times ever match men's?” filled in: the question, the maths and the data sources.

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