IA idea · Sport
Will women's Olympic times ever match men's?
Research question
Has the gap between men's and women's winning times in [an Olympic event] narrowed over time, and what does comparing linear and asymptotic models say about famous claims that women will one day run faster?
Adapt it: change the place, the data or the comparison until the question is yours.
Why it makes a good exploration
A 2004 paper in Nature extrapolated straight lines to predict women would outrun men in the 100 m by 2156 — and was widely criticised. Reworking the analysis with better models teaches more about extrapolation than any textbook exercise.
The mathematics you'll need
- Linear regression and extrapolation
- Exponential/asymptotic models
- Percentage gap as a derived variable
- Residuals and model criticism
Course labels show where a technique sits; using maths from outside your course is fine if you explain it clearly and say it is new to you.
Where the data comes from
Winning times for one event since women first competed, from Olympedia.
- Olympedia — Complete Olympic results for every event since 1896.
Cite every source in a footnote where you use it and in your bibliography. Check the licence of any dataset you download.
A possible outline
- Present the data and the percentage gap.
- Fit linear models and show where they cross.
- Fit models with asymptotes.
- Analyse the gap directly over time.
- Reflect on extrapolation, participation and physiology.
Pitfalls that cost marks
- Extrapolating linearly without criticism.
- Ignoring years with boycotts or no Games.
- Comparing events with changed rules.
Showing personal engagement
- Choose an event you care about.
- Read the original paper and a response and summarise both fairly.
- Compare several events.
See Criterion C: personal engagement for what examiners look for.
Taking it further
Model the percentage gap as an exponential decay to a constant and estimate that constant.