IA idea · Environment & climate
How much does a cold month cost my family?
Research question
How strongly is my home's monthly gas (or electricity) use related to the average outside temperature, and at what temperature does heating effectively switch off?
Adapt it: change the place, the data or the comparison until the question is yours.
Why it makes a good exploration
Energy analysts use “heating degree days” to predict demand. Using your own family's bills and local weather data gives a model with a clear physical interpretation and a practical answer.
The mathematics you'll need
- Scatter plots and linear regression
- Piecewise linear models (heating on/off)
- Interpreting gradient and intercept
- Residuals and unusual months
Course labels show where a technique sits; using maths from outside your course is fine if you explain it clearly and say it is new to you.
Where the data comes from
Monthly meter readings or bills (with family permission) and monthly mean temperature from the nearest Met Office station.
- Met Office historic station data — Monthly max/min temperature, rainfall, frost days and sunshine for 37 UK stations, some from 1853.
Cite every source in a footnote where you use it and in your bibliography. Check the licence of any dataset you download.
A possible outline
- Explain the physics of heat loss.
- Match bills to monthly temperatures.
- Fit linear and piecewise models.
- Estimate the base temperature and cost per degree.
- Reflect on holidays, occupancy and insulation changes.
Pitfalls that cost marks
- Bill periods that do not match months.
- Using temperatures from a distant station without comment.
- Ignoring price changes when using costs.
Showing personal engagement
- Use your own home's data.
- Estimate the saving from lowering the thermostat by 1 °C.
- Compare with a neighbour's home (with permission).
See Criterion C: personal engagement for what examiners look for.
Taking it further
Build a heating-degree-day model and compare it with your piecewise model.