Statistics · Maths EE idea · Solid
Counting animals you cannot see
A research question to start from
How accurate is the Lincoln–Petersen estimate of a population size, and how does the Chapman correction reduce its bias?
A starting point, not your question: change the case, the comparison or the limit until it is yours. The research-question builder helps you check it.
Why it works as a maths EE
Estimation theory with a real use, plus a simulation you can run at home with beans.
Mathematics you would need
- Hypergeometric distribution
- Bias of estimators
- Confidence intervals
- Simulation
Much of this goes beyond the DP course. That is expected in a maths EE, but you must understand and explain everything you use.
One possible line of attack
- Derive the estimator from proportions.
- Show it is biased and analyse the correction.
- Run physical or simulated experiments and compare.
Scope and difficulty
Solid. Solid.
Pitfalls
- A biology project.
- No bias analysis.
Where to start reading
Search a library catalogue or a university's open lecture notes for: Lincoln-Petersen estimator bias Chapman; hypergeometric capture recapture. Prefer textbooks, lecture notes and journal articles to a single website, and cite everything you use (how to reference a maths EE).