Statistics, data and evidence · Perspectives

How should we judge a statistical claim reported in the news?

Headlines often turn numbers into simple stories: risks 'double', a group is 'twice as likely'. The numbers may be correct while the impression is wrong. This question asks what a reader needs to know to turn a reported statistic into reliable knowledge.

Claims

Asking a few standard questions (compared with what, out of how many, measured how) lets any reader evaluate most claims.
Official statistics agencies and fact-checkers make reliable figures available, so careful readers can check claims.

Counterclaims

Most people do not have the time or training to check, so in practice they trust or distrust a source rather than the numbers.
Choosing which true figure to report is itself a perspective; even accurate statistics can frame a story.

Real-life situations from mathematics

The 1995 contraceptive pill scare

In October 1995 UK regulators warned that some newer contraceptive pills doubled the risk of blood clots. The relative risk was correct, but the absolute risk was very small. Many women stopped taking the pill, and an increase in unplanned pregnancies and abortions was recorded the following year.

Relative and absolute risk

A rise from 1 in 10,000 to 2 in 10,000 is a 100% increase in relative terms but one extra case in 10,000 in absolute terms. Both figures are true; they tell different stories.

Check dates and figures in a reliable source before you use them, and cite that source.

Use this in your TOK work

Essay. Fits titles about trust, the media, or how language shapes knowledge.

Exhibition. A newspaper headline about risk is one of the best exhibition objects: ask what the number does and does not tell you.

Link it to the prescribed title or the exhibition prompt you are working on, in your own words. See using maths examples in your essay and choosing exhibition objects.

Themes and study heading

Knowledge and language Knowledge and politics Perspectives

Different views of what mathematics is and whose it is.