Technology, algorithms and AI · Methods and tools
Does big data make mathematical theory less necessary?
With enough data, some argue, patterns speak for themselves and we no longer need models that explain them. This question asks whether prediction from data alone is knowledge, and what happens when the patterns change.
Claims
- Large data sets reveal patterns no theory anticipated, and many useful systems, such as translation software, work well without a theory of why.
- Prediction is what matters for many practical decisions, so if data predicts well, theory is optional.
Counterclaims
- Patterns found without theory can fail suddenly when circumstances change, because nothing explains why they held.
- Choosing what data to collect, and how to analyse it, already involves theory and assumptions.
Real-life situations from mathematics
'The end of theory'
In 2008 Chris Anderson, then editor of Wired magazine, argued that with enough data the scientific method of hypothesis and model would become obsolete. Many scientists and statisticians disagreed.
Google Flu Trends
Google Flu Trends estimated flu levels from search queries. It worked well at first, but in the 2012–13 season it greatly overestimated flu levels in the US, and the service was later closed.
Check dates and figures in a reliable source before you use them, and cite that source.
Use this in your TOK work
Essay. Fits titles about explanation versus prediction, or about technology changing methods.
Exhibition. A fitness tracker's data summary is an everyday object for a prompt about how technology shapes knowledge.
Link it to the prescribed title or the exhibition prompt you are working on, in your own words. See using maths examples in your essay and choosing exhibition objects.
Themes and study heading
Knowledge and technology Methods and tools
How mathematical knowledge is produced and justified.